Double Stack for Karaoke Phil at State

Season II’s Twin City Regionals for the FreePokerNetwork’s bar poker league took place Saturday at the Golden Valley VFW.  There were 79 players showing up from all the qualifiers and the top 20 would advance to the the State Championships in Mahnomen on May 5. 

Karaoke had already qualified for what will be his 8th straight state tournament in the FPN, but he was going for a double stack.  Friends of the CPL, Nels Peterson, Wyn Santo and Wanda Bublitz were also all present. 
Starting with a double stack, 4000 chips, Karaoke took down the first hand for a couple hundred chips. Things hovered between 3000 and 5500 chips for quite some time until an overly aggressive player came to the table with a huge stack of about 13K. The two clashed quickly with Karaoke sporting AsJs and blinds at 75/150.  With 5100 chips Karaoke raised to 375 in the cut off and was heads up against the villain who had limp/called.  The flop came Ac2d3d.  The villain checked.  Karaoke threw out 700 to which the villain….shoved all in for his remaining 12k or so.  Karaoke had 4025 left and this would be for this tournament life – with about 70 players still remaining.  Karaoke tanked.  Without inquiry the villain volunteered, “I’ll show them whatever you decide.”  This left Karaoke thinking to himself – “maybe he’ll talk.” And, so he asked Mr. Villain – “What do you have?”  “I have 7 high but half the deck for outs.”   
If the villain is telling the truth it’s a 4/7, or 5/7 of diamonds – giving him 12 outs (9 diamonds for the flush and either three 4s or 5s – the non-diamonds- for a straight).  Not quite half the deck, but enough outs to make it fairly close to a coin flip.  If the villain is lying, the play could easily be a flopped set of 2s or 3s or even two pair.  And, a slow played A/K could easily be in the mix.  Any of the scenarios would leave Karaoke in tough shape.  He dumped the A/J, deciding to fight on with the 4025 chips he had left.  The villain showed the 4d and 7d.  We ran the numbers through the odds calculator – Karaoke was ahead with a 53% chance of winning.  The villain had a 46% of knocking Phil out of the tourney and there was a 1% chance of a tie.
The next moment of truth between the two came with 38 players left.  They had both been moved to new tables but the same table.  Blinds were now 200/400.  The villain raised to 500 UTG.  Karaoke decided to try and trap with AcQd in MP.  He cut out the 500 chips from his remaining 4300 chip stack.  The flop came down AhKcTh.  Mr. Villain shoved all in for the 11K he now had.  Karaoke tanked again.  Since the villain was talkative last time Phil asked, “What do you have this time?”.  “Same thing, flush draw with a gut shot,” came the reply. The same thought process went through Karaoke’s mind again.  If villain is telling the truth it’s a Q or J of hearts and another heart.  Players were dropping more quickly now.  Karaoke nearly called, but decided to fight on with his 3800 remaining chips.  The villain tabled the Qh5h.  Karaoke again had a 53% chance to take down this hand, but the villain’s chances drop to 36% with a 10% chance of a tie.
As it turns out – it worked out.  Karaoke dropped a lot of hands, made timely blind steals and won a couple of “real” hands to stave off elimination.  He was reduced to 2400 chips with 26 left when he called a 2700 chip all in with KcQc.  He was up against A/8 off suit.  The flop came down A/4/Q. The turn was a blank, but the river brought another Q giving Karaoke a double up plus the blinds.  That was about all he needed.  Hand-for-hand began with 24 players left.  By then, the villain had been eliminated.  Both Nels and Wyn failed to make the top 20, but Karaoke and Wanda did.  Phil busted out in 17th, with Wanda taking 14th.  Both now head to the state championships with a double stack in chips!!