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• 10/17/2011 2:12 PM Teratical wrote:
  Good show, as always.
  
  As far as active sites goes, I'm still playing on Doyle's Room.
  
  Let's get that home game going!
  
  If I ever start a band, I'm calling it Whim of the River.
  
  I had a hard time listening to the Hand of the Week because it was FPN online poker. I started having flashbacks of massive donkfests. *shiver* I basically agree with Phil, no one is folding anything. I would actually push pre-flop, because everyone is calling anyway and you just have to get lucky and avoid them improving. Although I do like the Stop And Go here as an option. That site is such a giant waste of time.
  
  I'll take exception with one bit of Phil's logic. To go off your gut that "I'm behind" and ignore the math will hurt you in the long run. If you're getting 19:1 and have a set, you have to call. The reason is that the "I think I'm behind" feeling doesn't tell you enough about what you need to know to make the right decision. You have to look at the range of hands you reasonably think you are against and compare it to the pot odds (your odds of winning the pot vs. the odds the pot is offering). Even if your true odds were: 80% of the time you were beat (that would qualify as your gut feeling = fold), 10% you were ahead of a hand like a lower set, two pair, or one pair) and 10% the opponents were completely bluffing (Dan Harrington contends there's *always* at least a 10% chance your opponent is bluffing), that's a long-term win if you call. Folding is a long-term loser. (assuming the 19:1 odds)
  
  This is were I think your strong desire to stay in a tournament even with a tiny amount of chips hurts you. Ideally you should make that call and yes it knocks you out 80% of the time, but the other 20% of the time you pull down a giant pot and greatly increase your odds of cashing - or even winning. I might even contend that that impulse to fold contributes to your stated struggles with getting over the near-the-bubble hump. Once I started trusting in the long-term odds and stopped worrying about getting knocked out (aka focusing on my specific results in this one tourney), my results improved.
  
  Just my own constructive criticism - take it for what it's worth. BTW, that general strategy I'm describing comes from poker books, not me (I believe Kill Everyone (by Nelson, Streib, Heston, & Elky), which is all about how to profit from people who are afraid of getting knocked out.
  
  Hope that for a lengthy comment?
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• 12/22/2011 11:12 AM Karaoke Phil wrote:
  Hey Teratical - just catching up on this comment. Took a re-listen to the hand. Thanks, as always, for the comments and feedback. I would note that at every street, the hand did not play out as I would've played. I would've bet out at every street and that likely would've changed the whole dynamic of the hand.
  
  However - you maintain a very valid point (especially the "there's always a 10% chance an opponent is bluffing).
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